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The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts
Authors:Zhaoyang Gu  Jian Xue  
Affiliation:aTepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890, USA;bSchool of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;cSchool of Business and Management, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong
Abstract:We show that although forecasts of independent analysts are less accurate ex post, they yield forecast errors that are more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns. This suggests that forecasts of independent analysts are superior to those of nonindependent analysts in representing ex ante market expectations. We also show that forecasts of nonindependent analysts become more accurate and less biased, and produce forecast errors more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns when independent analysts are following the same firms than when they are not. This suggests that the presence of independent analysts disciplines the behavior of nonindependent analysts.
Keywords:Financial analysts   Analyst independence   Forecast accuracy and bias   Earnings response coefficients   Global Research Analyst Settlement
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