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Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics
Authors:José García-Solanes  Jesús Rodríguez-López  José Luis Torres
Affiliation:1.Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico,Universidad de Murcia,Murcia,Spain;2.Departamento de Economía, Métodos Cuantitativos e Historia Económica,Universidad Pablo de Olavide de Sevilla,Sevilla,Spain;3.Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica,Universidad de Málaga,Málaga,Spain
Abstract:This paper studies the trade balance dynamics in the G-7 countries plus Spain. We estimate a SVAR model to identify three different shocks: real supply shocks, real demand disturbances and nominal shocks. A microfounded stochastic open-economy model is built to derive the long-term identification restrictions. Estimates show that real demand shocks explain most of the variability of trade imbalances, whereas, contrary to previous findings, nominal shocks play a very limited role. These results are consistent with the predictions of a widely set of open-economy models and illustrate that demand policies are the main responsible of trade imbalances.
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