实际有效汇率与产业结构调整:基于广东省数据的实证分析

本文采用IMF提供的1990-2009年人民币对美元实际汇率数据,在VAR模型的框架下对实际有效汇率对广东省产业结构的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,在汇率升值的背景下,各个变量之间并不存在长期稳定关系,这就意味着从长期来看,实际汇率变动对广东产业结构调整的影响并不明显,基于广东省经济较强的外源性,我们认为实际有效汇率渐近升值的冲击并不能自动有效地引发产业结构的调整,产业结构的调整仍有赖于政府的政策主导作用。

The Empirical Study on the Effect of Real RMB Exchange Rate on the Industry Structure of Guangdong Province

By collecting the data of real effective exchange rate between RMB and US dollar offered by IMF from 1990 to 2009,this paper conducts empirical analysis of the influence of real effective exchange rate on industrial structure in Guangdong province under the framework of the VAR Model.It turns out that under the background of exchange rate appreciation,there is not a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between the variables.This means that even from the perspective of long term,there is no obvious impact of the real effective exchange rate change on the industry restructuring,so given the special economic feature of Guangdong,the impact brought out by the real effective rate on industry development can not lead to the adjustment of business structure,industry structure adjustment of Guangdong still depends on the government’s role by means of adopting polices.