人口城市化与产业结构变迁的动态关系——基于贵州省的实证检验

文章选取1978—2012年时间序列数据,从贵州省人口城市化与产业结构变迁的动态关系视角出发,选用ADF单位根检验法、Johansen协整检验法,采用Granger因果关系检验和EngleGranger误差修正模型,定量探究了岩溶地区人口城市化与产业结构变迁之间的内在关系。结果表明,贵州省的人口城市化与产业结构之间存在长期的正向均衡关系,但区别于其短期的负向关系;在滞后1期时,人口城市化和产业结构之间具有单向Granger因果关系,在滞后2~4期时,具有双向的Granger因果关系。

The Dynamic Relationship Between Urbanization and Industrial Structure --Empirical Test Based on Guizhou Province

This paper takes the data from 1978-2012, from the dynamic relationship between urbanization and industrial structure, applying ADF unit root test approach, Johansen co-integration test approach, Using Granger causality test and the Engle Granger error correction model, quantitatively explore the karst area of urbanization and industrial structure optimization and upgrading of the intrinsic relationship. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization and industrial strucatre of Guizhou Province, which is different from their short-term negative relationship; In the lag 1, the population between urbanization and industrial structure with one-way Granger causality, In the lag 2 to 4 in the lag period, with two-way Granger causality.