养老社会保障与城镇居民消费：理论分析与实证检验

自20世纪90年代以来，我国城镇居民消费倾向降低和储蓄率不断增加成为不争的事实。我国居民储蓄很大程度上受将来养老金发放以及医疗卫生和教育成本等不确定因素的影响，完善社会保障可以降低这些不确定性，从而促进居民消费。国外学者关于老年消费的研究以及养老社会保障对居民消费和储蓄的影响研究由来已久，并随着消费函数理论和实证研究方法的发展而不断深入。而与其他国家相比，我国养老社会保障现状又具有自身的特殊性，其对消费的影响效应是否与西方学者的研究结果一致？本文采用理论分析和实证研究相结合的方法，在消费函数理论框架内考查我国是否也存在退休消费困境以及养老保障对城镇居民消费的影响。

Social Security and Urban Household Consumption:Theorical Analysis and Empirical Test

From 1990, it is an undoubted fact that the consumption tendency of Chinese urban households is declining and the saving rate is continuously increasing. Chinese household saving is to a large extent influenced by many uncertain factors, such as the future pension benefits, health and education costs, improving the social security system can reduce these uncertainties, thereby promoting household consumption. The impact of Social Security on consumption and saving has been attracting much attention of economists in other countries, the developments of consumption theory and empirical approaches have been induced the subsequent numerous studies. But compared with other countries, Chinese social security system has its own features, which effects on consumption is not sure to be consistent with Western research findings. The paper aims to study weather the retirement consumption puzzle is observed in China and the impact of Social Security on the consumption of Chinese urban household theoretically and empirically.