基于LMDI的广西碳排放影响因素实证研究

基于碳排放对数平均迪氏分解模型(LMDI),对广西1995²010年碳排放量进行因素分解,结果发现:经济增长是引起广西碳排放增加的主要原因。产业结构变动整体上增加了广西碳排放量,但影响较小,而能源强度和碳强度降低有效减少了广西碳排放总量。因此政府应继续完善绿色低碳技术研发的政策扶持体系,加快推进工业绿色转型,培育壮大新能源产业,大力发展现代服务业,充分挖掘产业结构优化升级的碳减排潜力,切实促进广西低碳经济快速发展。

Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions in Guangxi Based on LMDI

Using the logarithmic mean divisia method（LMDI）, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region carbon emissions between the year 1995 to 2010 were decomposed into four effects, the decomposition results show that the growth of eeonomic output causes the increase of C02 emissions, the industrial adjustment increase Guangxi C02 emis- sions overall, the Guangxi Autonomous Region carbon emissions has decreased because the energy intensity and car- bon intensity decrease. Therefore, the government should further improve the green low-carbon technology research and development policy support system, accelerate the greening of industry transformation, foster the growth of new en- ergy industry, vigorously develop modern services, give full play to the optimization and upgrading of industrial struc- ture of carbon mitigation potential, to promote the development of low-carbon economy in Guangxi Zhuang Autono- mous Region.