| 当前物价运行及其未来发展趋势 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 叶欢,彭育贤. 当前物价运行及其未来发展趋势[J]. 中国货币市场, 2012, 0(2): 7-12 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 叶欢 彭育贤 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]中国人民银行调查统计司 [2]中国人民银行长沙中心支行调查统计处 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 2011年8月以来,CPI同比涨幅持续回落,全年CPI上涨5．4％。从2012年物价走势看,受政策滞后效应和上年同期基数效应影响,上半年物价有望延续回落趋势,而随着政策微调和宏观经济回升,下半年物价重拾升势的可能性较大。预计2012年全年CPI涨幅为3．6％左右。综合考虑我国工业化发展阶段、刘易斯拐点与资源品价格市场化改革等因素来看,中长期内物价仍存在上涨压力。
|
| 关 键 词： | 物价 工业化中后期 资源品价格 |
The recent developments andfuture trends of the domestic price indexes |
| |
| Ye Huan,Financial Statistics and Analysis Department,People＇s Bank ot L;hna Peng Yuxian. The recent developments andfuture trends of the domestic price indexes[J]. China Money, 2012, 0(2): 7-12 |
| |
| Authors: | Ye Huan,Financial Statistics Analysis Department,People＇s Bank ot L hna Peng Yuxian |
| |
| Affiliation: | , Financial Statistics and Analysis Section, PBC Changsha Central Sub-branch |
| |
| Abstract: | The year-on-year CPI growth has been declining since August 2011, the full-year CPI was up 5.4%. As for the price trend in 2012, subject to the policy lag effect and base effect of the corresponding period last year, the price in the first half of this year is expected to continue the falling trend, but with policy fine-tuning and the economy upturning, it is likely that the price will turn uptrend in the second half of the year. The annual CPI rise for 2012 is expected to be around 3.6%. Combined with the factors of Chinese industrialization stage, Lewis turning point and market-oriented reform of resource prices, the price will still be under rising pressure within the medium to long term. |
| |
| Keywords: | price middle and final stages of industrialization resource price |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
