日元汇率变动的影响因素及走势分析

2012年2月份以来，日元大幅贬值，市场对于日元是否已进人中长期贬值通道展开了热烈讨论，日元贬值论也甚嚣尘上。文章在分析导致日元历史与近期贬值趋势的影响因素的基础上，尝试对日元汇率的未来走势进行判断，指出在当前市场环境下，日元存在短期内温和贬值的可能，但尚未发现足以推动日元中长期贬值的市场力量，目前判断日元已进人中长期贬值通道还为时尚早。

Factors affecting JPY exchange rate and its moving trend

The JPY substantial depreciation since February 2012 has aroused a heated discussion in the market on whether JPY is on the path to a mid- to long-term depreciation, while there was widespread news about JPY depreciation. This article is based on the analysis of the factors that give rise to the historical and recent JPY depreciations to predict JPY exchange rate trend. It states that JPY is likely to depreciate slightly in the short term under the prevailing market conditions, while market forces causing the mid- to long-term JPY depreciation have not yet been identified and it is too early to say that JPY is on the path to a mid- to long-term depreciation.