公共教育投资与延长人口红利——基于人力资本动态投入产出模型和SAM的预测

本文利用SAM和动态投入产出模型预测了通过提高公共教育投资以延长人口红利的可行性。假定政府扩张教育投入至GDP4.5%，施行高中义务教育，虽然在短期内由于挤占经济建设投资，会导致经济增速下降，但其长期效应包括：使高中和研究生学历人力资源迅速扩张，显著提升现代制造、科教、服务业的生产率，为产业结构升级打下基础；居民和企业相对收入提高，有利于经济增长模式转变；GDP增长率将随着人力资本的积累而回升，增长在人口红利拐点后得以延续。

Public Education Spending and Demographic Dividend:Projections based on Human Capital I-O Model and SAM

This paper projects how expansionary public spending on education will affect the demographic dividend using SAM and dynamic input - output analysis. A higher fraction of public education expenditure in GDP will slow down economic growth due to the cutback of productive public investment in the short run. However it has positive effects as follows in the long run. First, the amount of high school and graduate students will increase greatly, leading to higher productivity of modern sectors and paving the way for industrial upgrade. Second, household and firm income will rise relatively, facilitating structural change of China＇ s growth. Thanks to the accumulation of human capital, growth will pick up eventually and demographic dividend will be extended.