利比亚战乱对油气产业的影响

自2011年2月中旬利比亚发生动荡和战乱以来,利比亚油气产业陷入停顿状态,油气产量急剧下降,油气田管理处于无序状态,沿海油气集输设施受到战争威胁,部分炼油厂和港口储运设施遭到破坏,油气出口陷于停滞。在西方国家支持和卡塔尔国家石油公司帮助下,反对派石油运营逐渐起步。利比亚战乱对国际石油市场形成冲击,由于担心在北非引起骨牌效应,在中东埋下动荡的种子,国际基准油价不断走高,轻质低硫原油紧俏,导致部分石油消费国开始考虑调整油源结构。未来,影响利比亚局势发展的关键因素包括西方国家支持反对派的决心,阿盟对多国部队空中打击的立场,反对派能否团结一致,国内各地区各部落的立场,卡扎菲政权应对制裁的能力。可以预见,利比亚局势在短期内较难明朗,其油气产业年内很难恢复,这将对世界石油市场产生长期的影响。

The impact of chaos in Libya on the petroleum industry

In the turbulence and civil war since mid-February 2011, Libya’s oil and gas industry has fallen into stagnation. Oil and gas production has dropped, the management of oil and gas fields has fallen into disarray, coastal oil and gas transportation facilities are threatened by military action, parts of refining, storage and transportation facilities have been damaged, and oil and gas exports have stagnated. With Coalition support and the help of Qatar’s state oil company, oil operations controlled by the opposition have managed to restart gradually. Libya’s turbulence has significantly impacted the world petroleum market. Reflecting concern over the domino effect of a spread of turmoil in North Africa, international benchmark oil prices are rising, with low sulphur light crude in short supply, and leading some oil consumers to consider adjusting their oil sourcing. Key factors in the outcome for Libya include the Coalition’s determination to support the opposition, the Arab League countries’ attitude toward the Coalition air strikes, how united the opposition is, the position of local tribes, and the ability of the Gaddafi government to withstand sanctions. The situation in Libya is obscure in the short term, but its oil and gas industry will clearly be hard to restore this year and this will have a longer-term effect on the world oil market.