耕地利用“大棚化”的时空特征及影响因素分析

目的 我国以“大棚化”为代表的耕地利用转型不断深入，意味着传统的露天耕作已逐渐被设施农业取代。少有研究在宏观层面上对耕地“大棚化”的影响因素进行探究，特别是其与新型职业农民转型间的关系。方法 文章以2006年和2016年中国大陆31个省级行政区为对象分析了耕地利用“大棚化”的时空特征，并通过多层线性模型对2016年全国209个地级行政区耕地利用“大棚化”的影响因素进行了探究。结果 ①2006—2016年中国大陆耕地利用“大棚化”整体呈上升趋势，在空间上呈现出东高西低的分布态势。②大棚用地面积影响因素中，人口密度、城镇化水平和新型职业农民有显著正向影响，而坡度有显著负向影响。③“大棚化”率的正向影响因素与大棚用地面积的相同，而负向影响因素中新增了降水量、一产比重和人均经营耕地面积。结论 人口密度是耕地利用“大棚化”转型的重要拉力因素，而新型职业农民培育可以主动有效推进耕地利用“大棚化”转型。

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMLAND USE TRANSITION TOWARDS GREENHOUSE FARMING

The transition of farmland use towards greenhouse farming has increasingly occurred across China. Transition towards greenhouse farming refers to traditional open-field cultivation have been gradually replaced by protected agriculture system. However, there has been relatively few studies investigating the factors influencing the transition at a macro level. Especially, there has paid little attention to the relationship between the growth of new-type professional farmers and the farmland use transition towards greenhouse farming. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of the greenhouse farming expansion by building a data set including the data of farmland use transition during 2006 and 2016 within 31 provinces in mainland China. Furthermore, a multi-level model was used to empirically investigate the influencing factors of greenhouse farming expansion. There were mainly three results obtained from the data set and multi-level model estimations. Firstly, the greenhouse farming area and the ratio of greenhouse had generally increased from 2006 to 2016. The amount of greenhouse farming decreased from the east China to west China. Those factors had significantly positive impact on the growth of greenhouse cultivation, including population density, urbanization level and the proportion of new professional farmers, while slope had a significant negative impact. Moreover, those factors had significantly positive impact on the change in greenhouse cultivation ratio, including population density, urbanization level and the proportion of new professional, while those factors had a significant negative impact, including slope, precipitation, the proportion of primary industry contributed to GDP and the per capita farmland area for business. In conclusion, the growth of new professional farmers has effectively promoted the farmland use transition towards greenhouse farming and population density has been an important determinant.