货币升值对不同产业就业的影响——对亚洲八国汇率与就业关系的经验分析

为了研究人民币升值可能对中国各产业就业影响,且避免单独研究中国数据所产生的局限性,本文选取八个亚洲主要国家和地区的数据,利用面板数据模型进行实证分析。实证结果显示汇率升值将对制造业的就业产生负效应,而对第三产业的效应为正,按照该结果,人民币升值将会给中国本已严峻的就业形势带来更大的压力。根据中国各产业就业形势的当前状况及发展趋势,解决中国就业问题的根本出路在于大力发展第三产业。

Influences of Currency Appreciation on Various Industries: An Empirical Analysis of the Relation between Employment and Exchange Rate in the Eight Asian Countries

This article uses panel data model to analyze empirically the data from the eight Asian countries in order to understand the influences of the appreciation of RMB on China's various industries.The research results show that while the currency appreciation exerts negative effects on the employment in manufacturing industries,it will generate positive effects on tertiary industries.Thus,the appreciation of RMB will bring about more pressure for the stern employment challenges in China.Based on the analysis of empirical study,this article analyzes the current situation and development trend of the employment situations in China's various industries and then points out that the key to solving the employment difficulties is to vigorously develop the tertiary industry.