| 东亚经济周期与次区域经济周期存在性检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜群阳,宋玉华. 东亚经济周期与次区域经济周期存在性检验[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2005, 0(8): 47-51 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜群阳 宋玉华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江工业大学
2. 浙江大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文系国家社科基金2002年重大项目“世界经济周期理论研究”（02AGJ001）研究成果之一。 |
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| 摘 要： | 东亚经济一体化的迅速发展使“东亚经济周期(EABC)研究”的重要性与紧迫性日趋凸现,本文选取10个代表性国家(地区),以实证方法对1970-2004年东亚经济周期进行了相关性检验和聚类分析;得出东亚经济周期存在,NIEs、ASEANs等次区域经济周期存在,地区性大国经济周期独立性较明显,中国与东亚经济周期关联度逐渐加强等结论,分析结果为东亚经济合作进程中出现的诸多现实议题提供了理论支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 东亚经济周期 次区域经济周期 聚类分析 |
The Existence Test on Regional Business Cycle and Sub-area Business Cycle of East Asia |
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| DU Qun-yang,SONG Yu-Hua. The Existence Test on Regional Business Cycle and Sub-area Business Cycle of East Asia[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2005, 0(8): 47-51 |
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| Authors: | DU Qun-yang SONG Yu-Hua |
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| Affiliation: | DU Qun-yang SONG Yu-hua |
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| Abstract: | The integration of East Asian Countries(EACs)has impulsed the research of EastAsian Business Cycle(EABC). This article selects ten representative EACs, using the data of1970-2004 to make correlation and hierarchical clustering analysis. It shows that the EABC do exist,such Sub-area Business Cycle as NIEs and ASEANs do exist, large-nation’s business cycle be moreindependent, Chinese business cycle gradually correlates with them by 90’s. Such conclusions aresignificant for many East Asian cooperation topics. |
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| Keywords: | Regional business cycle of East Asia Sub-area business cycle Hierarchical cmstenng analysis |
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