货币与财政政策后续效应评估:40次银行危机样本

以20世纪80年代以来40次重要的系统性银行危机为基础,对金融危机后的货币政策和财政政策选择进行实证评价。实证结果表明,"适度扩张"的货币政策和财政政策能产生相对较优的经济效果,应成为金融危机后的主要政策选择,但由于两种政策刺激或稳定经济的效力都集中体现在短期,为避免持续和大规模货币扩张和财政赤字带来的负面影响,一旦危机消退、经济企稳回升,之前作为"反危机工具"出现的扩张性货币和财政政策就应该逐步淡出。

The Sequent Assessment on Monetary and Fiscal Policies:Data of 40 Systemic Banking Crises

Based on cross-country data of 40 systemic banking crises since the 1980s,this paper investigates the economic effectiveness of possible choice of monetary and fiscal policy.The empirical result shows that the modest expansion of monetary and fiscal policy can better balance price level and economic growth,thus should be taken as the main policy choice after typical financial crisis.However,as the efficacy of both policies is realized in the short run,in order to averting the negative effects of lasting and large-scale monetary expansion and fiscal deficit,once the crisis die away and the economy return to its normal trend,the expansionary monetary and fiscal policy which formerly taken as counter-crisis instruments should retired out gradually.