城市化发展与粮食产量增长的动态分析:1949-2004

本文通过协整检验、误差修正模型估计、脉冲响应函数及方差分解技术分析了城市化发展同粮食生产之间的关系.实证结果表明,长期内,城市化的发展对粮食产量增长有促进作用,而且粮食产量增长也将保证城市化发展的顺利进行,但在短期内,两者之间不可避免地存在着一系列的冲突与矛盾.为此,政府制定城市化发展政策时应避免其片面性,以缓和两者之间的矛盾,为达到长期内两者共赢的目标打下坚实的基础.

Dynamic Analysis on the Relationship between Urbanization and Food Production through 1949-2004

Based on Co-integration test,error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition,this article analyzes the relationships between urbanization and food output.The results show that in the long run,urbanization helps food output,and so does food production to urbanization.However,in the short run,conflicts exist between these two aspects.We propose that the government consider these conflicts in urbanization policy making.