经验、产业集聚与“一带一路”PPP项目的成功率

提高"一带一路"PPP项目的成功率,对"一带一路"倡议的推进意义重大。文章以"一带一路"沿线36个国家和地区的2131次PPP投资项目为样本,系统研究了东道国经验对PPP项目成功率的影响和产业集聚在其中的作用,基于排序模型实证发现:经验与PPP项目成功率间并非简单的线性或曲线关系,其中成功经验与项目成功率成负向线性关系,而总经验和失败经验则成U型非线性关系;产业集聚有助于降低失败经验对项目成功率的积极影响,但在总经验或成功经验的影响中无显著作用。

Experience,Industrial Agglomeration and the Success Rate of PPP Projects in the Belt and Road Initiative

How to improve the success rate of PPP projects in the Belt and Road(B&R)Initiative is of great significance to the promotion of B&R Initiative.This paper takes 2131 PPP investment projects in 36 countries and regions along B&R as the samples and systematically studies the impact of the host country’s experience on the success rate of PPP projects and the role of industrial agglomeration.Based on the ranking model,the empirical results show that there is no simple linear or curvilinear relationship between experience and the success rate of PPP projects.The relationship between successful experience and project success rate is a negative linear one,while the relationship between total experience and failure experience is a U-shaped nonlinear one.Industrial agglomeration is conducive to reducing the positive impact of failure experience on project success rate,but it has no significant effect on the impact of total experience or successful experience.