The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)

The main objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the socio-economic causes of terrorism and political violence in a sample of 12 countries in Western Europe. First, we show that in western European countries the classical economic argument of opportunity cost is confirmed. That is, the larger is the set of current economic opportunities for individuals the lower is the likelihood or the willingness for them to be involved in a terrorist activity. Second, expected future economic growth seems to be associated with an increase in current terrorist activities. Eventually, our results also show that terrorist brutality (measured in people killed) is positively associated with real GDP per capita.