服务贸易政策的成本估计:基于STRI的关税等价

文章利用OECD的服务贸易限制指数(STRI)和亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出表,运用Anderson和Van Wincoop (2003)引力模型分析框架和泊松伪极大似然(PPML)估计技术,研究了服务贸易政策对服务总值贸易和增加值贸易的影响效应,并评估了政策壁垒的关税等价。研究发现,进口国服务贸易政策对服务总值进口以及内涵的国内增加值和国外增加值均有显著抑制作用,且对国外增加值的进口抑制作用更大。对于不同行业,服务贸易政策的经济成本存在显著差异,服务贸易政策促进了电信服务和航空运输服务的跨境贸易,但是对其他行业跨境贸易有显著抑制作用,2018年关税等价介于2.4%~249.8%之间。

Cost Estimation of Service Trade Policy: Tariff Equivalents Based on STRI

Based on OECD’s Service Trade Restrictiveness Index( STRI) and ADB-MRIO,this paper uses gravity model and poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood( PPML) estimator to study the impact of service trade policies on gross service trade and value-added trade,and estimate the tariff equivalents of policy barriers. The research shows that the service trade policy of importing country has a significant negative effect on service imports and different value-added components. For different industries, the economic costs of service trade policies are significantly different. Service trade policies promote cross-border trade in telecommunications services and air transportation services, but exert a significant negative effect on cross-border trade in other service sectors. The tariff equivalents in 2018 were between 2. 4% ~249. 8%.