中国货币政策与财政政策协调机制的均衡分析 ——基于非线性结构模型系统

为探究货币财政政策在既定宏观经济目标下政策协调的最优均衡策略,本文引入内生的政府支出政策,并基于非线性利率及财政赤字率作用的货币供应量方程构建非线性结构模型.进一步地,对包含内生政策的非线性结构模型进行对数线性化处理与参数校准,并基于既定预期目标研究货币政策与财政政策的协调问题.特别地,对2008年和2017年进行了政策均衡模拟分析.通过模拟分析可以发现,当经济出现较大波动时,采用本文模型可以得到满足均衡情况的实际利率和财政赤字率的最优政策组合,与我国当前实际经济采取的政策组合较为一致.

An Equilibrium Analysis of China's Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Coordination Mechanism:Based on Nonlinear Structural Model System

In order to analyze the optimal equilibrium strategy of policy coordination under the established macroeconomic goals, the endogenous government expenditure policies are introduced in the model, and a nonlinear structural model through the nonlinear interest rate and money supply equations is built. Further, the nonlinear structural model is log-linearized and parameter calibrated to analyze the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy with a given expected goal. In particular, a policy equilibrium simulation analysis is carried out in 2008 and 2017. The simulation analysis find that when the economy fluctuates greatly, the model can obtain the optimal policy combination of real interest rate and fiscal deficit rate that satisfies the equilibrium situation, which is more consistent with the policy combination adopted by China''s current real economy.