我国房地产价格与通货膨胀的关联关系及其影响因素

基于1999～2011年的季度数据,运用考虑外生政策变量的多变量SVAR模型检验我国房地产价格与通货膨胀之间的关联及其影响因素,研究表明:我国房地产价格与通货膨胀之间存在关联关系,并且受到流动性水平、工业产业产能、利率、市场预期、工资水平、调控政策等因素的共同影响,其中货币因素是主要因素之一,而宏观调控政策对房价的作用最初则表现出紧缩失灵、扩张有效的态势,特别是对房价的调控,存在较长时滞,因此,必须坚持调控政策不动摇。

The Real Estate Price and Inflation Fluctuations and Their Affecting Factors

Based on 1999~2011 quarterly data, in this paper considering the exogenous policy variables, the multivariate SVAR model is used to check the correlation between real estate prices and inflation as well as their influencing factors. Our study shows that: Linkage relationship does exist between China''s real estate prices and inflation. In addition, the relationship is influenced by the combined effect of level of liquidity, industrial capacity, interest rates, market expectations, wage levels, regulatory policies and other factors. Among them monetary factor is the most important one. There is a long time lag in the macro-control policies upon the real estate, which means it is better to adhere to the policies for a long time.