应对疫情对经济影响的关键是构建确定性

对于经济影响而言,所谓的确定性并非疫情得到完全控制,而是疫情传播速度和影响范围得到控制,经济活动者对于疫情的恐慌得到缓解,因而可以在较大范围和程度上恢复经济活动。确定性不是自然而然产生的,而是通过构建来实现。按目前形势预测,疫情大致影响GDP增速0.2-0.5个百分点,对经济不同环节的影响差异较大:对消费的影响是断点式的,滞后惯性影响小;对生产和投资的影响是连续性的,滞后惯性影响大。疫情的不确定性对企业影响最大,要特别关注疫情触发中小企业资金链断裂、进而导致大量企业破产的多米诺骨牌效应。当务之急是要通过构建确定性来稳定预期,迅速控制疫情传播速度和影响范围,缓解、消除经济活动者的恐慌情绪,减轻疫情对经济的冲击。

The Key to Deal with the Economic Impact of Epidemic Situation Is to Build Certainty

In regard to economic impact,the so-called certainty doesn’t demand complete control of the epidemic.Instead,it means that the speed and scope of the outbreak is brought under control and economic actors’ panic is alleviated,thus economic activities can be restored to a large extent.However,certainty does not come naturally,but is achieved through construction.Based on current situation,the epidemic is forecasted to affect GDP growth rate by 0.2-0.5 percentage points,while the intensities are varying among economic links.Consumption is affected discontinuously with small delay and inertia.Whereas,production and investment are affected continuously with large delay and inertia.Beyond all that,the greatest impact would be on enterprises.And it calls for special attention that the uncertainty of the epidemic may trigger a domino effect in which the capital chain of small and medium-sized enterprises breaks,leading to an even larger scope of bankruptcy.Therefore,the urgent task is to build certainty to stabilize expectations,quickly control the spread rate and impact range of the epidemic,ease and eliminate the panic of economic actors,and soften the effect on the economy.