美中贸易逆差的根源与实证分析

后金融危机时代,美中贸易逆差成为人们关注的焦点。美中贸易逆差根源在于美国自身的经济结构问题,是国际产业分工深化和美国自身产业结构调整的结果,并非汇率问题,即人民币升值不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。文章通过实证分析得出,(1)美国贸易逆差与美国制造业对外直接投资存在正向的长期均衡关系,两者存在格兰杰因果关系,说明美国货物贸易逆差的扩大与制造业对外直接投资有关。(2)美国对华贸易逆差与美国对华直接投资存在正向的长期均衡关系,两者同时存在格兰杰因果关系,即美中贸易逆差随着美国对华直接投资的增加而不断扩大。

An Empirical Analysis of the Cause of US-China Trade Deficit

In the post-crisis period,US-China trade deficit has become the focus of attention.This paper believes that US-China trade deficit has been caused by the problem of America′s economic structure,which is the result of the deepening of international industrial division and the adjustment of America′s industrial restructuring.It argues that RMB revaluation can not solve the problem of US-China trade deficit.The empirical analysis concludes that: U.S.trade balance has a positive long-run equilibrium relationship with foreign direct investment in its manufacturing industry,and there is a Granger causality relationship,indicating that FDI in its manufacturing industry has caused the expansion of the trade deficit;US-China trade deficit has a positive long-run equilibrium relationship with U.S.direct investment in China,both of which exist the relationship of Granger causality,namely,it is U.S.direct investment in China that has caused the expansion of US-China trade deficit.