基于熵权灰色关联法的新疆铁路网扩张规律研究

为提高铁路网规划的合理性,选择铁路网发展状况、经济发展状况、社会发展状况3个维度的21个评价指标,运用熵权灰色关联法对影响新疆铁路网扩张的因素进行分析。以铁路网密度表征铁路网的扩张,驱动因子可以概括为GDP、收入水平、社会保障和人口数量,依据Cobb-Douglas生产函数建立模型,预测新疆15个地州(市)的铁路网密度。结果表明,新疆北疆铁路网密度优于南疆;在研究铁路网扩张规律时,除了考虑GDP、收入水平、社会保障和人口数量等因素外,还应顾及自然资源、建设历史、城市定位及政策偏好的区域差异。

Study of Xinjiang Railway Network Expansion Pattern Based on Entropy Grey Relational Method

In order to optimize the railway network planning, a quantitative study on the pattern of railway network expansion in Xinjiang was carried out with 21 evaluation indicators in three dimensions of railway network development status, economic development status and social development status. Entropy grey correlation method was adopted to analyze the factors affecting the expansion of Xinjiang railway network. The railway network density was used to characterize the expansion of the railway network. The driving factors can be summarized as GDP, income level, social security and population. A model was established based on the Cobb-Douglas production function to predict the railway network density of 15 prefectures(cities) in Xinjiang. The results show that the density of the railway network in northern Xinjiang is higher than that in southern Xinjiang. When the pattern of railway network expansion is studied, in addition to factors such as GDP, income level, social security, and population, other factors including natural resources, construction history, urban positioning, and policy preferences should also be considered.