新能源成本不确定下能源最优开采研究

随着全球气候变暖和环境的恶化，低污染高效率的新能源成为各国能源政策的主要发展对象，因此新能源取代传统能源是大势所趋。针对未来新能源对传统能源的替代趋势，本文通过建立基于社会和企业总效益最大化的能源最优开采的动态模型，分析了新能源成本不确定性和社会风险偏好的差异对能源耗竭速度的影响，并提出了提高社会总收益的合理方案。分析表明：在替代品出现之前能源的开采量随着新能源替代品成本不确定性的增加而增加；而社会风险厌恶倾向于减少社会的最优开采，但是会增加竞争性企业的的开采量；对T时刻之前的能源开采征收额外的税收可以减缓能源耗竭速度，增加社会总收益。最后，本文提出了T时刻之前的能源开采征收额外的税收，或者是对T时刻之后的能源开采进行补贴来实现我国能源最优开采，提高能源利用效率的建议。

Energy Resource Extraction When the Future New Energy Has an Uncertain Cost

With global wanning and environmental degradation, new energy of low pollution and efficiency new energy is greaterly encouraged by the national energy policy, so it has become an inevitable trend that the traditional energy is replaced by the new energy. Taking the benefits of society and business into account, the article has analyzed the effect of both uncertainty of the costs of new energy and the various assumptions about the society＇s risk aversion on the extraction of energy resource and given some suggestions to improve it by setting up a dynamic optimal model. The analysis result indicates that ： （i） the optimal of path of resource extraction will be changed in the same direction before the production of new energy by a mean cost preserving increase in uncertainty, （ii）risk aversion tends to reduce the socially optimal extraction and increase the competitive extraction before the production of new energy,（iii）a natural policy to impose a tax on extraction before T would reduce the depletion rate of traditional energy and improve the social benefits. Finally, in this paper, we give some suggestions to improve energy efficiency, which are imposing additional revenue of the energy exploitation before the T time and subsidizing it after T time.