Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis |
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Authors: | Almut Balleer Ramon Gomez-Salvador Jarkko Turunen |
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Institution: | 1. RWTH Aachen, LuF Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, Templergraben 64, 52062, Aachen, Germany 2. IIES, Stockholm University, 10961, Stockholm, Sweden 3. European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311, Frankfurt, Germany 4. International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street N.W., Washington, DC, 20431, USA
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Abstract: | We use a cohort-based model to analyse the determinants of labour force participation in six European economies, focusing on age and cohort effects as factors explaining differences in participation behaviour across countries. Cohort effects are particularly relevant for women with those born in the late 1960s and early 1970s more likely to participate over the life-cycle. Our results suggest that cohort effects can be interpreted as evolving social norms or preferences towards participating in the labour market according to Fernandez (NBER working paper no. 13373, 2007). We find substantial variation in the estimated age and cohort effects across European countries: cohort effects can account for a substantial part of the recent increase in participation in Spain, the Netherlands and Germany, and a positive, but smaller part of in the increase in participation of the UK, Italy and France. Looking forward, positive cohort effects could help counteract the downward impact of population ageing on participation. |
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