Fuzzy model estimation of the risk factors impact on the target of promotion of the software product

ABSTRACT

This article studies the application of fuzzy logic to the risk analysis of a new software product development and marketing in specific case of a small size IT company. Identification and analysis of external and internal risk factors show that this type of business activity could be evaluated as high-risk enterprise. So, the purpose of the paper is to develop robust method to evaluate probability of occurrence of major risk events and their impact on the company financial health. The fuzzy logic is used to estimate degrees of threat of each relevant risk factor due to lack of reliable statistical data. The novelty of proposed approach is the inclusion into the model the risk event time.