| 2010年上海世博会参观人次的系统动力学预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗守贵,高汝熹.2010年上海世博会参观人次的系统动力学预测[J].上海管理科学,2009,31(6):76-81. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗守贵 高汝熹 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海,200052 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用系统动力学方法对2（）10年上海世博会参观人次进行了预测。结果表明，在展览内容一般，潜在游客转化率一般情况下，参观人次仅略多于5000万，而在展览内容精彩，潜在游客转化率乐观的情况下，参观人次可接近9000万，在其他7种情况下，参观人次则介于5000万-9000万之间。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 世博会 参观人次 上海 |
A Prediction of Visitors to the 2010 Shanghai World Expo Based on Dynamics |
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| Luo Shougui,Gao Ruxi.A Prediction of Visitors to the 2010 Shanghai World Expo Based on Dynamics[J].Shanghai Managent Science,2009,31(6):76-81. |
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| Authors: | Luo Shougui Gao Ruxi |
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| Institution: | Luo Shougui Gao Ruxi |
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| Abstract: | In this paper the authors calculate visitors number of 2010 Shanghai World Expo by way of employing systemic dynamics. The results show that the visitors＇ number will be a little more than 50 million if the exhibition is mediocre and the transforming ratio of potential visitors are moderate; while the number will near 90 million if the exhibition is wonderful and the transforming ratio is high. Under other circumstances the number will be between 50 million and 90 million. |
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| Keywords: | systemic dynamics World Expo visitors＇ number Shanghai |
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