反补贴申诉的贸易转移效应——基于面板数据的实证分析

利用1991-2009年的统计数据,以1993-2007年间立案的188起国际反补贴案件6位税则号的涉案产品数据为研究对象,通过建立动态面板数据模型,实证分析反补贴申诉的贸易转移效应。结果表明:反补贴申诉会导致涉案产品的进口从被诉国转移到非被诉国,其中墨西哥、美国、欧盟和其他国家的贸易转移效应较大;相比无税结案,征税结案的情况下产生的贸易转移效应更大,即对被诉国的出口的损害更大。

Trade Diversion Effect of Countervailing Initiation:Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

Using a data set based on 6 digital tariff codes identified in 188 global countervailing cases initiated from 1993 to 2007,and covering the latest statistical data from 1991 to 2009,trade diversion effect of countervailing initiation is examined by establishing a dynamic panel data model.Empirical test shows that countervailing initiation diverts imports from named countries to non-named countries and has the most significant trade diversion effects on Mexico,followed by USA,EU and other countries.Compared with negative decisions,affirmative decisions generate greater trade diversion effects with more damage to export of named countries.