中美贸易失衡主因分析

中美两国实现更加平衡的贸易关系对于两国和世界经济极其重要。而中美贸易失衡的不断加剧,则导致双方贸易摩擦频繁发生,影响全球经济强劲、可持续和平衡增长。理论分析和实证检验表明:美对华高技术产品出口管制与中美贸易失衡存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且具有相互促进的"放大效应",出口管制是引发并加剧双边贸易失衡的主要原因。本文认为,本着相互尊重和互利共赢的原则,通过诱制性和强制性方法促使美国付诸实际行动放宽乃至取消高技术产品出口管制,中美贸易失衡将有望解决。

Analysis on Main Reasons of Unbalanced Sino-American Trade

Achieving a more balanced Sino-American trade relationship is of extreme importance to the economies of the United States and China as well as the world as a whole.The ever-increasing unbalance of Sino-American trade has resulted in frequent occurrence of trade friction,impacting strong,sustainable and balanced global economic growth.Theoretical and empirical analysis have shown that there exists long-term stable equilibrium relationship and "amplifying effect" between the unbalance of Sino-American Trade and the control of United States on export of hi-tech products to China.Control on export is the main reason triggering and aggravating trade unbalance between the United States and China.Based on the principles of mutual respect and benefit for a win-win situation,Sino-American trade unbalance could be resolved by urging the United States to put into action the release or even cancel of its export control on hi-tech export to China through induced and mandatory method.