中国对美国的贸易成本变动及影响因素研究

作为影响国际交换能否发生的重要因素,贸易成本已成为国际贸易研究的重要领域。在采用Novy模型就1995年至2012年中国对美国的贸易成本进行有效测度的基础上,对影响贸易成本变动的多种因素进行分析,结果显示：中国对美国贸易成本总体上呈现波浪式下降趋势;人民币过快升值会对贸易成本的降低产生不利影响;中国商业环境改善、进口关税水平降低等因素有助于降低贸易成本;原油价格变动对贸易成本的影响不大;FDI、美国进口关税水平与中美贸易成本之间不存在长期均衡关系。基于进一步分析发现,中国对美国贸易成本还有下降的空间,中国应充分挖掘贸易成本下降的途径,以进一步提高出口商品的竞争力。

Changes and Effect Factors of Sino-US Trade Costs

Trade cost, as an important factor of affecting international exchange, has become a key research area of international trade. Based on the revised Novy（2008） model,this paper measures the Sino-US trade costs and analyses its effect factors. This paper finds that：the Sino-US trade costs have a wave-decreasing trend;excessive appreciation of RMB has a negative impact on trade costs ; China＇s improvement of business environment and decline of import tariff all contribute to the trend, and price change of oil does not much affect it, while there does not exist a long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI, American tariff and bilateral trade costs. Further analysis reveals that there is a good deal of room for Sino-US trade costs to move lower and China should fully explore approaches of the trade cost reduction to further enhance the competitiveness of export commodities.