基于灰色系统理论GM（1,1）模型的林芝旅游市场规模预测

旅游业是西藏林芝市的支柱产业，对林芝旅游市场规模进行预测具有重要的意义。基于2009-2016年林芝市旅游接待人数数据资料，利用灰色系统理论GM（1,1）模型对林芝市十三五期间旅游市场规模进行预测，并对其进行了残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验，检验结果显示建立的GM（1,1）模型具有较高的精度，可以进行实际预测。预测结果表明林芝未来几年旅游业市场规模将呈现持续稳定增长的趋势。

Forecasting of Linzhi Tourism Market Based on Grey System Theory

Tourism is a pillar industry in Linzhi, Tibet, and it is of great significance to predict the Linzhi tourism market. Based on the data of 2009-2016 tourism reception in Linzhi city, using the grey system theory GM (1,1) model , the tourism market in future five years of Linzhi city was predicted in this paper. The significance of the model was tested by residual test, relevatce degree test and back-check test, the results showed that the GM (1,1) model has higher precision, it is reasonable to predict. The forecast results showed that the Linzhi tourism market will continue to grow steadily in the next five years.