The Obama effect |
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Authors: | Dennis Halcoussis Anton D Lowenberg G Michael Phillips |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, California State University, Northridge, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge, CA 91330-8374, USA;(2) Department of Finance, Real Estate, and Insurance, California State University, Northridge, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge, CA 91330-8379, USA |
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Abstract: | Many observers argued that Barack Obama’s candidacy in the U.S. presidential election of 2008 benefited from the financial
crisis and recessionary economic conditions which voters blamed on the Republican administration. However, an empirical examination
of stock price and public opinion data indicates that improvements in Obama’s electoral prospects led stock price declines
and that gains by Obama were more likely to be followed by falling stock prices than by rising prices. This evidence suggests
that the poor performance of the stock market in the days leading up to Obama’s victory was partly caused by, rather than
causing, Obama’s success.
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Keywords: | Election Stock Market |
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