我国财政可持续性的实证分析：1952—2007

1998年以来，我国连续7年实施积极的财政政策。2008年，为了应对世界金融危机，我国又重启积极的财政政策。积极的财政政策在促进经济增长的同时也使得财政赤字显著增加和国债规模显著扩大，这就不可避免地引起人们对我国财政可持续性的担忧。文章根据政府跨时预算约束理论，利用协整方法对1952—2007年我国财政可持续性的状况进行实证分析。结果显示：从长期来看，1952—2007年，我国的财政是可持续的；从短期来看，1952--1978年、1979—1994年，我国的财政也是可持续的；但1995—2007年，我国的财政收支之间不存在协整关系，财政赤字政策不可持续。

An Empirical Study on the Fiscal Sustainability of China: 1952-2007

The active fiscal policy was adopted in China for seven years from 1998. In order to deal with global financial crisis, the government adopted the active fiscal policy again in 2008. On one hand, the active fiscal policy promotes economic growth rate, on the other hand, it brings the magnitude of fiscal deficits and public debts, which leads to people＇s anxiousness on the fiscal sustainability of China. In this paper, based on government inter-temporal budget constraint, we analyze the sustainability of fiscal deficit during 1952 -2007 by using co-integration method. According to the result, we find that the finance of China is sustainable during 1952-2007 in the long run. In the short term, we find that the finance of China is sustainable during 1952-1978 and 1979-1994. Fiscal revenue and expenditure of China during 1995-2007 is not co-integrated. Therefore, we conclude that the budget deficit policy in China during 1995-2007 is not sustainable.