| 2007年国际油价影响因素探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖汉平.2007年国际油价影响因素探讨[J].石油化工技术经济,2007,23(1):19-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖汉平 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国银河证券有限责任公司 北京 |
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| 摘 要： | 地缘政治因素在2006年国际市场原油价格上涨中发挥关键作用。2007年随着全球和美国经济增长明显减速,非OPEC国家原油供给增加超过全球新增原油需求,OPEC剩余生产能力也将增加。因此,全球原油供求因素将不支持油价上涨。预期2007年全年油价不会超过2006年水平,如果不出现重大地缘政治事件,全年原油均价将低于60美元／桶。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球经济增长 地缘政治 原油价格 2007年 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6476（2007）01-0019-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-04 |
Discussion on Affecting Factors of International Oil Price in 2007 |
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| Xiao Hanping.Discussion on Affecting Factors of International Oil Price in 2007[J].Techno-Economics in Petrochemicals,2007,23(1):19-27. |
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| Authors: | Xiao Hanping |
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| Institution: | Research Center, China Galaxy Security Co. ,Ltd,Beijing 100032 |
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| Abstract: | In 2006, geopolitics factors played an important role in international market crude oil price rise. With the obvious slowdown of global and US. economy in 2007, the increase of crude oil supplied by non-OPEC countries will exceed the global newly increased crude oil demand,and the spare production capacity of OPEC will also increase, so global supply and demand situation of crude oil will not support price rise. It is predicted that the oil price level in 2007 will not exceed the level of 2006, and should there were no grave geopolitics events,the average crude oil price will be below 60 dollar/barrel. |
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| Keywords: | global economy increase geopolitics crude oil price 2007 |
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