The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting |
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Authors: | Peg Young J Keith Ord |
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Institution: | Division of Management Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA |
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Abstract: | The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting. |
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Keywords: | Address reprint requests to Dr J K Ord Division of Management Science The Pennsylvania State University University Park PA 16802 USA |
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