山东省粮食生产波动及主要投入要素效应的实证分析——基于17地市的面板数据

山东省17市粮食总产和单产从2002~2012年均呈增加趋势,其中,德州粮食产量和增产幅度最大,菏泽总产位居第二,而单产较低。菏泽、临沂、潍坊、聊城等产粮大市粮食单产仍有很大提升潜力。采用改进的多要素投入柯布-道格拉斯生产函数对山东省17个地市2002~2012年粮食总产量及影响其粮食生产三大投入要素(粮食种植面积、化肥施用总量、农业机械总动力)的面板数据进行的计量分析表明,粮食种植面积、化肥施用总量、农业机械总动力与山东粮食总产量均呈正向相关关系,且粮食播种面积、化肥施用总量和农业机械总动力每增加1个百分点,粮食产量分别增长1.097个百分点、0.258个百分点和0.082个百分点,在山东省粮食生产要素投入贡献份额上,技术进步贡献率达52.9%。种植面积对粮食总产量的贡献率达34.27%,化肥施用总量对粮食总产量的贡献率为10.26%,而农机总动力的贡献率为2.57%。根据研究结论提出促进山东省粮食生产持续稳定发展的建议,即确保粮食种植面积、科学运筹施肥、研发推广适用型农业机械、增加粮食生产中的农业科技投入、完善农业科技创新体系。

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF GRAIN OUTPUT FLUCTUATION AND EFFECT OF MAIN INPUT ELEMENTS ON GRAIN PRODUCTION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

The gross yield and the yield per unit area both showed a similar rising trend in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2002 to 2012. Both the grain output and the average annual increase rate were the largest in Dezhou as compared to other cities, followed by the Heze city in which the yield per unit area was lower than the other cities. There was a large potential for the increase of grain yield per unit area in Heze, Linyi, Weifang, and Liaocheng. Panel data of grain output and three input elements, i.e. grain planting area (PA), total amount of fertilizer application (FA), and total power of agriculture machinery (AM) in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2002 to 2012 were analyzed using the improved multi-element Cobb Douglas production function. The results showed that 1% increase in grain planting area, fertilizer amount or total power of agriculture machinery would increase on average 1.097, 0.258 or 0.082 % of grain output, respectively. Accordingly, this paper put forward important and optimum approaches for promoting steady development of grain production, including that the grain planting area should be stabilized or increased, the fertilizer use efficiency should be increased by improving fertilizer application techniques, both the mechanization and intensification of the grain production should be promoted to the higher level by developing and extending new and suitable agriculture machinery in order to raise both labor productivity and land output efficiency, the agricultural infrastructure conditions should be improved, and the techniques of the grain production with both higher stress resistance and more stable high-yielding ability should be developed in order to strengthen the grain productive capacity.