棉花生产量、贸易量变动与国际棉价波动的实证分析——以棉花主产国和贸易国为例

本文运用葛兰杰因果关系检验法对国际市场棉花价格与世界主要棉花生产国的棉花生产量和主要棉花贸易国①的棉花贸易量之间的因果关系进行了检验,并对存在因果关系的变量进行了回归分析,研究结果表明:国际市场棉花价格与世界主要棉花生产国的棉花生产量之间存在反向变动关系,而与世界主要棉花贸易国的棉花贸易量之间的关系不确定。对棉花进口需求量较大的国家而言,其在棉花的国际市场上并不遵循一般意义上的定价规律。

Relationship between the outputs and Trade Quantities of Cotton and Its Price Fluctuation in the International Markets

This paper uses Grange Causality Testing to test the causal relation between the cotton price in the international markets and its outputs and trade volume in the main cotton producing and trading countries. Regression analysis is applied to the causal variables to get the preliminary research results that the cotton price in the international markets has a reversed change pattern with its outputs in the main cotton producing countries, and the relation between the cotton price in the international markets and its trade quantities in the main cotton trading countries is indefinite. In the international cotton markets, countries that have a larger demand for the cottons do not follow the pricing law in general meaning.