CEPA框架下香港对内地直接投资的引力模型分析

使用引力模型,利用内地七省市的面板数据分析CEPA框架下香港对内地的直接投资.结果表明,CEPA签署以后并没有促进内地吸引港资,但促进了香港经济的恢复与发展.香港对内地投资的主要影响因素是劳动力成本,随着内地廉价劳动力的减少,对港资的吸引力减弱,港资更愿意投资本地附加值高的产业.内地从可持续发展的角度,应鼓励创新,提高国民教育水平,引导外资投向高新技术产业.

Analysis of Hong Kong Direct Investment to the Mainland with the Gravity Model under the CEPA Framework

This article analyzes the direct investment of Hong Kong to the Mainland using gravity model based on panel data of seven provinces in the Mainland under CEPA framework.Test results show that,after the signing of CEPA,the mainland has not attracted more investment from Hong Kong,while the treaty has promoted Hong Kong’s economic recovery and development.The main factor of Hong Kong investment to the mainland is the cost of labor.With the shortage of low-price workforce,the attractiveness of mainland becomes lower.Hong Kong capital would rather invest in locally high value-added industries.From the perspective of sustainable development,mainland should encourage innovation,improve the educational level and guide foreign investment to high-tech industries.