城市群集中与城市群经济增长

文章以拓展的市场区理论为基础，从理论上分析了城市群集中与城市群经济增长之间的关系，并利用中国十一大城市群2000-2014年的面板数据进行实证检验。理论分析结果表明，在城市群集中过程中，城市群有效产出并不会无限增加，最终趋于平稳的增长状态；而且随着城市群规模经济的增加和潜在市场规模扩大，城市群集中度先提高，然后又会出现下降的现象。实证分析表明，中国城市群集中与有效产出增长之间表现为非线性关系，并表现出一定的稳健性。未来中国城市群发展要遵照城市群发展规律。

The Concentration of Urban Agglomeration and Economic Growth of Urban Agglomeration

This paper analyses the relationship between the concentration of urban agglomeration and the economic growth of urban agglomeration through the expanding theory of market areas, and tests the theoretical result using the panel data between 2000 and 2014 from eleven urban agglomerations. The result from theoretical analysis shows that the efficient output is likely to be stable in the growth of the concentration of urban agglomeration; and with the increase of the economies of scale and the improvement of the potential market size，the concentration of urban agglomeration will first be improved, and then drop. The result from the empirical test shows that the relation between the concentration of urban agglomeration and efficient output growth is nonlinear, and it is stable and robust. The development of the urban agglomeration in future should comply with the law of the development of urban agglomeration.