Contributions of Econometrics to Public Policy Analysis in the Information Age |
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Authors: | Dale W Jorgenson |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, Harvard University, 122 Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA, 02138-3001, US |
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Abstract: | In this paper we model U.S. economic growth over the next 25 years. Despite the anticipated aging of the population, moderate
population growth will provide growing supplies of labor well into the 21st century. Improvements in labor quality due to
education and experience will also continue for some time, but will eventually disappear. Productivity growth for the U.S.
economy will be below long-term historical averages, but labor-using technical change will be a stimulus for growth of labor
demand. Year-to-year changes in economic activity will be primarily the consequence of capital accumulation. However, the
driving forces of economic growth over the long term will be demography and technology.
This is a revised version of the keynote speech that I delivered on 16 January 2009 at the 6th International Conference of
Socionetwork Strategies, at Kansai University, Japan. |
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Keywords: | :" target="_blank">: Labor supply Labor demand Household preferences Technical change |
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