Are real estate markets becoming more efficient?

This paper compares real rates of return to housing capital with returns to other forms of fixed reproducible capital. All data are from the national income and capital accounts and are gross of taxes and depreciation. Returns to housing capital have been consistently lower than those to other capital during the fifty-five year period for which data are available. Since 1950, the disparity between returns to housing and other capital has narrowed steadily and substantially. The paper presents speculations as to the reasons for the improvement in capital market efficiency.I am indebted to Robert Godrick and Daniel Siegel for comments on an earlier draft.