Is your brand's loyalty too much, too little, or just right?: Explaining deviations in loyalty from the Dirichlet norm

This paper formally investigates the factors that relate to the deviations of brand's actual loyalty levels from theoretical norms in packaged goods markets. An aggregate measure of brand loyalty, share of category requirements, commonly tracked by marketing managers is used for this analysis. The comparison is conducted against the estimated share of requirements provided by the well established Dirichlet model of purchasing behavior. We posit that a brand's positioning strategy and marketing mix can influence the magnitude and the direction of the deviation from the norm. We use a two step modeling procedure where we first compute the deviation from the norm for each brand and subsequently conduct a regression analysis of this brand-level data to test the proposed hypotheses. We find that on average, brands that cater to some market niche, are bought in higher quantities, have lower prices, promote to a lesser extent, and have shallower price-cuts and enjoy higher than expected loyalty levels. We discuss possible implications of these results and offer guidelines that managers can use to better assess both the actual and the theoretical loyalty levels of their brands.