2004年上半年国际国内宏观经济金融走势分析

本文对2004年上半年国际国内经济金融形势进行了较为全面和深入的分析.从全球经济走势来看,世界经济已进入新一轮的稳固增长期,美日欧等主要经济体以及亚洲国家和地区的经济复苏普遍有力,国际金融市场在经济复苏的有利影响下也呈总体向好态势,国际经济金融走势对我国经济的影响日益深化.从国内经济形势来看,当前宏观调控已经取得明显成效,但经济仍在高位运行,粗放的经济增长方式没有发生根本改变,消费增长缓慢制约了经济的健康发展,商业银行中长期贷款的增长速度偏快.本文还在国内经济形势分析的基础上对下半年的财政与货币政策走向进行了预测.

Analysis of the Economic and Financial Trends in China and in the World in the First Half of 2004

In this paper,a complete and in-depth analysis is conducted regarding domestic and international economic and financial trends in the first half of2004.Globally,the world economy has entered into a new round of stable growth;leading economic powers like USA,Japan and EU and Asian countries and regions have made a dynamic recovery;thanks to the positive influence of economic recovery,inter-national financial market is improving and our economy tends to be increasingly swayed by international economic development.Domestical-ly,although remarkable achievements have been scored in macro-control endeavor,problems still exist:economy is running at high speed,extensive economic growth pattern remains unchanged,consumption grows slowly,which inhibits the sound development of economy and mid and-long term loan of commercial banks increases at a faster tempo.Based on the foregoing analysis of domestic economic situation,the fis-cal and monetary policy trend in the second half of2004is forecast.