主要客源国对中国入境旅游市场的贡献分析

文章以经济学投入产出理论为依据，以定量分析法为主，提出了入境旅游市场贡献概念，为其构建了人口份额贡献、经济份额贡献和贡献指数3项关键指标，并就17个主要客源国近14年对我国入境旅游市场的贡献指标进行了单项和交叉分析。研究发现：（1）亚洲客源国是我国入境旅游人口份额贡献的主要市场，我国入境旅游虽已步入摆脱对日本、韩国、俄罗斯、美国4个传统客源大国过度依赖的初始阶段，但未来很长时期内他们的人口份额贡献主导地位不会改变，人口份额贡献呈现出国别过度集中特征。（2）经济份额高贡献国较少，来华外国游客在单位旅游时间（天）内的旅游花费高低和停留时间长短是影响其对我国入境旅游经济份额贡献高低的两项重要因素。（3）客源国对华入境旅游市场贡献指数在“十一五”规划期内得到明显改善，研究期内样本整体的市场贡献指数虽得到增长，但整体水平不高，市场贡献高指数国主要集中在欧美地区。

Contribution Analysis of Inbound Tourist Source Market in China

The research results of the inbound tourist source market (ITSM) from both domestic and overseas tourism academic circles show that the focus has mainly been on the“real conditions”of the market. But this makes little sense for tourism destination countries in the selection of international target ITSMs, preferential marketing strategies, the combination of business strategies, and other macroscopic decisions. To this end, this research, from both the“real conditions”and“practical contributions”of the inbound tourist market and according to the input-output theory of economics, proposes the concept of“contribution of inbound tourist source market (ITSM)”through quantitative analysis, and constructs three key indicators for it, i.e., population contribution, economic contribution and a contribution index. The contribution of ITSM refers to the comprehensive contribution of the world’s source countries to the number of inbound tourists in destination countries, or economic scale (or the corresponding growth rate), the creation of market opportunities, and the boost effect to the markets of these countries or regions in a specific business cycle (month, quarter, or year). Among them, population contribution refers to the inbound tourism population provided by a source country to a destination country in a specific study period; economic contribution refers to the inbound tourism economic scale provided by a source country to a destination country in this period; and the contribution index refers to the corresponding economic share brought by the unit population of a source country to a destination country in this period.
The paper separately and comparatively analyzes the contribution indexes of 17 ITSMs of China in the past 14 years. The results show that: (1) The main population contribution comes from other Asian countries and regions. China has gradually reduced its dependency on four traditional ITSMs, i. e., Japan, the ROK, Russia and the United States, although these countries will continue to be a major source of inbound tourism for quite some time. Finally, to some extent, population contribution is focused on those countries with high contributions. 2) In terms of economic contribution, there are few source countries with high contributions. The amount of consumption and duration of stay of foreign tourists in China are important factors that affect contributions to China’s economy. 3) The contribution index of ITSMs was significantly improved in the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Although the index grew by 0.14 during the research period, it was relatively low on the whole. The contribution rates of various ITSMs differ greatly, and the countries with high contributions mainly come from Europe and America.