网络传销犯罪的量化特征及其治理困境

对我国近十年对网络传销案件发生的时空分布特征、犯罪规模特征、刑罚特征及其影响因素进行量化分析与数据模型构建,旨在为我国刑事司法机关提供治理网络传销犯罪的循证依据。以大数据视域为切入视角,运用 Excel、Spss 等分析工具,对发生于 2012-2021 年的 946 起裁判文书判例进行时间序列、空间序列、刑罚特点、刑罚影响因素 , 以及结构特征、行为规律的综合分析与解释模型构建。结果发现：网络传销的犯罪数量呈现出逐年上升的趋势,其案发集中于我国南部省份以及中原地区,被告人被判处有期徒刑并处罚金是其最常见的刑罚种类;传销规模与涉案金额对网络传销犯罪的刑罚严重程度具有显著正向影响,被告人数量对于平均罚金具有显著正向影响;网络传销犯罪在实践中具有犯罪影响规模化、组织层级扁平化、运行模式多元化的结构型特征与行为规律;法律规制粗糙、侦查取证难度高、管辖争议性严重是当前我国刑事司法机关在打击网络传销犯罪的治理困境。

Quantitative Characteristics and Governance Dilemma of the Crime of Cyber Pyramid Sales Scheme: Based on the Judicial Documents from 2012 to 2021

This paper makes quantitative analysis and data model construction on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics, crime scale characteristics, penalty characteristics and their influencing factors of cyber pyramid sales scheme cases in recent ten years in China, in order to provide evidence-based basis for Chinese criminal justice systems to deal with cyber pyramid sales scheme crimes. From the perspective of big data, this research uses Excel, SPSS and other analysis tools to build a comprehensive analysis and interpretation model for the time series, spatial series, penalty characteristics, penalty influencing factors, structural characteristics and behavioral regularities of 946 judicial documents from 2012 to 2021. The results demonstrate that: the number of pyramid selling crimes is increasing year by year; the cases are concentrated in the southern provinces and the central plains region of China; the most common type of punishment is that the defendant is sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment and fined; the scale of pyramid sales scheme and the amount of money involved have a significant positive impact on the severity of punishment of cyber pyramid sales scheme crimes, and the number of defendants has a significant positive impact on the average fine; the crime of cyber pyramid sales scheme has has the structural characteristics and behavior laws of large-scale criminal influence, flat organizational level and diversified operation modes in practice; rough legal regulation, difficult investigation and evidence collection, and serious jurisdiction disputes are the governance difficulties of Chinese criminal judicial system in combating the crime of cyber pyramid sales scheme.