俄乌冲突背景下中俄双边贸易变化及应对研究

利用 UN Comtrade 贸易统计数据运用国际贸易指数相关分析法,分析了中俄双边贸易发展现状、结构特征、贸易互补性（TCI）和贸易比较优势（RTA）,并结合数据分析结果和当前俄乌冲突的背景,分析了欧俄双边贸易的变化对中俄贸易的影响。研究表明：中俄贸易呈现“产业间”优势互补特征;中国对俄罗斯具有出口比较优势的商品正逐渐由初加工向深加工转变;中俄两国在“皮革制品”、“鞋类”等商品具有较好的贸易基础和潜力,“机电类产品”的贸易前景广阔。

Research on the Changes and Countermeasures of China-Russian Bilateral Trade in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Based on the trade statistics of UN Comtrade, this paper analyzes the current situation, structural characteristics, trade complementarity (TCI) and trade comparative advantage (RTA) of bilateral trade between China and Russia by using the correlation analysis method of international trade index, combined with the results of data analysis and the background of "Russia-Ukraine conflict", this paper analyzes the impact of bilateral trade between EU and Russia on bilateral trade between China and Russia. The results show that the bilateral trade between China and Russia is characterized by "inter-industry" complementary advantages; the commodities with comparative advantages in China''s export to Russia are gradually changing from primary processing to deep processing; China and Russia have a good trade foundation and potential in "leather products", "footwear" and other commodities, and the trade prospects of "mechanical and electrical products" are broad.