人口流动与初婚机会:福音还是梦魇?——基于CGSS2015数据的分析

大规模人口流动已成为中国社会转型期的重要时代特征,人口流动给个体初婚带来怎样的影响?基于CGSS2015数据,运用Cox比例风险模型对此进行了实证分析。结果显示:人口流动总体上推迟了初婚年龄,降低了初婚风险率;人口流动对初婚风险率的负向影响呈现代际递增趋势;与女性相比,农村男性流动在一定程度上提高了初婚概率,但不能从根本上改变其初婚不利处境;社会阶层地位对个人初婚有重要影响,不仅直接促进了个人初婚,也显著降低人口流动对初婚的负向影响;在扩大的婚姻市场中,农村底层男性成为婚姻竞争的失败者,也是婚姻挤压情境下终身不婚风险的主要承担者。贫富分化和阶层固化透过婚姻市场的竞争规则得以强化和延续。农村底层男性所面临的阶层边缘化和初婚机会减少的双重困境,需引起政府和学界的高度重视。

Population Flow and Opportunity of First Marriage:Gospel or Nightmare?

Large-scale population flow has become the characteristics of the times in contemporary Chinese society. What impact does population flow on individual’s chances of getting married for the first time? Based on CGSS2015 data,this paper makes an empirical analysis with Cox proportional risk model. The results show that population flow generally delays the age of first marriage and reduces the risk rate of first marriage. With the change of generation,the negative influence of population flow on the probability of first marriage is increasing. Rural male mobility to some extent increased the risk rate of first marriage,but cannot fundamentally change the disadvantaged situation of their first marriage;The social class factor not only increases the probability of first marriage,but also reduces the negative influence of population flow on the first marriage. In the expanding marriage market,the men at the bottom of the countryside become the losers in the marriage competition and the main undertaker of the risk of lifelong non-marriage under the marriage squeeze situation. The division between rich and poor and the solidification of class are strengthened and perpetuated through the competition rules of the marriage market. The double dilemma of the solidification of social stratum and the decrease of the chance of first marriage needs to be paid attention to by relevant departments.