外汇储备增长对物价水平影响的实证研究

从外汇储备增长对价格水平影响的理论传导机制中发现,外汇储备对物价水平的影响大体可以从利率、汇率和货币供应量三个方面进行传导,但影响方向具有相互性和不明确性,因此从实证方面进行数据统计研究具有补充性作用.在对2000年到2011年的月度统计数据构建VAR 模型进行自相关回归分析中,得出的结果显示外汇储备增长对价格水平的影响力较小,究其原因主要在于国内外对数据统计标准上的差异以及央行对冲效应的有效性.

Research on the Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserve Growth on Price Level

It is found in the theory of transmission mechanism of foreign exchange reserves growth to the price level that the impact of foreign exchange reserves on the price level can be roughly determined by interest rates,exchange rates and money supply.But there are interartion among these factors and uncertainty in their effect,thus an empirical research on the related statistical data is needed as a complement.The result of a VAR-based regression analysis on the monthly statistical data from 2000 to 2011 shows that foreign exchange reserves growth has less influence on the price level.The main reasons are the differences between international standards for data statistics and those in China as well as the effectiveness of the hedging effect of the central bank.