商品市场与金融市场的不确定性比较及其后果分析

商品市场与金融市场分别是实体经济与虚拟经济的主要构成部分,由于虚拟经济具有不确定性、流动性的特点,其理性计算的准确性远不及商品市场,当市场冲击到来时,由于市场信息以及知识结构的限制,大多数的套利者会采取从众行为,结果形成市场上的羊群效应,将初始的冲击多倍放大,演化为蝴蝶效应,最终通过金融危机传导至实体经济,形成大规模的经济危机。要想挽救经济危机,国家干预实为必要,干预的重心应从应急干预转向预期管理,预期管理应是预防金融危机形成羊群效应与蝴蝶效应的重要手段。

Uncertainty Comparison of Commodity Market and Financial Market and its Consequences Analysis

Commodity and financial markets are respectively the main components of the real economy and the fictitious economy.Because of uncertainty and liquidity,the accuracy of rational calculation in fictitious economy is far from that in commodity markets.When the market shock comes,as a result of limitations of market information and knowledge structure,the most arbitrageurs will follow the crowd behavior.The result is the herd behavior in the market and the initial shock is magnified many times and it evolves t...