汇率变动对中国出口贸易的影响

在理论上汇率上升会降低出口贸易,在实证上却出现相反的结论。在人民币对美元不断升值的情况下,中国的对外出口贸易却迅速增加。垂直专业分工到双边贸易的引力模型就中国与世界30个主要贸易对象的出口贸易数据研究表明,国际垂直专业化分工使得出口的汇率弹性降低。因此,传统汇率理论会导致弹性的高估,在国际垂直分工下希望通过人民币升值降低中国的贸易顺差也难以实现。

Study on the Effect of Exchange Rates Changes to China's Export

In theory,the rising of exchange rate will reduce export,but there is the contrary conclusion in practice.With the rising of RMB,the export of China is rising rapidly also.Though the vertical division of professional to the gravity model of bilateral trade,and China and 30 major trade objects all over the world,the export trade data research shows that,the international vertical specialization makes the flexibility of the export exchange rate reduce.Therefore,the traditional theories of exchange rate will l...